Experts warn Maduro’s fall could spark a successor

As the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Venezuela, experts warn that Nicolás Maduro’s ouster could open the door to a replacement for the incumbent and produce a region dominated by Venezuela for decades.

Venezuela today has reduced the central dictatorship to the dictatorship of the criminal areas controlled by the cartels, the Colombian insurgents and the military aligned with the regime. Analysts told FOX News Digital that US policy now deals not only with Maduro but with an entrenched ecosystem of non-armed non-state groups that could hold power in the Vast-Maduro Vacuum.

Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former national security chief

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“The way I see it, the next step will depend a lot on the direction of the repression campaign against us,” said Vigil. “If it goes in the direction of escalation and conflict, that means there will be very little control — or little power to influence what’s next.”

The danger, experts say, is not just a strong version of Maduro but the rise of armed actors who take control of the Shaths of Venezuela. Vigil said an uncontrolled collapse could reveal something far more dangerous than the current regime. “You can have someone worse than Maduro,” he said.

Jason Marczak, former deputy director and executive director at the Adhantic Council Adsht Latin Adshin Adsht Adshin Adverican Center, told FOX News Digital Those power centers include some of the most violent crimes in the western hemisphere.

The Bolivarian National Police fire destroyed the opposition demonstrators in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, February 15, 2014. The Venezuelan army was removed by the opposition groups of the government that tried to block the Caracas Highway Saturday evening. (AP Photo / Alejandro Cegarra)

“It’s hard to imagine things getting worse than under Nicolás Maduro. But what’s critical is not only for the aggressors of the injustice that is sold –

If either the opposition leader María Corina Machado or Edmundo González fails to fill the vacuum in post-Maduro Venezuela, experts point to a dense field of dangerous actors who can try to seize power if suddenly.

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Diosdado Cabollo

Diosdado Cabollo emerges as a feared and influential figure in the state. La Nación describes him as chavismo’s long-term number two, with sweeping control of the party’s machinery and propaganda apparatus. His power comes from internal political extermination in the interior and justice portfolios.

Cabollo was indicted by the US Treasury in 2018 for fraud, money laundering, racketeering and coordinating drug trafficking networks within the state. Reuters reports how the United States later increased rewards for information leading to his arrest as part of a broader effort to target the Cartel de Los Soles. Analysts say a Cabollo-led government could consolidate the power of the party, the national security forces and control of the media under a single cabal operator.

Minister of Interior and Justice Diosdado Cabello (C) Talks with the President of the Nation, Jorge Rodrííí) (l) as Vice President of Venezuela Delcy Rodríyz (R) heads to Caracar International Airport on July 18, 2025, in Caracas, Venezuela. (Jesus Vargas / Gentty Images)

Jorge Rodríguez

Jorge Rodríguez, President of the National Assembly and one of Maduro’s closest political collaborators, is another high-profile position in any succession situation. La Nación highlights his prominence within the Hite, noting his roles as Mayor, communications minister and key expert.

The US Treasury was opened by Rodríguez for actions that undermine democratic institutions, according to a summary of the Atlantic Council of Acace. Experts warn that Rodríguez could impose a more technical – but less authoritative – version of Chavismo, pairing skills with controlling electoral processes and state information systems.

Vladimir Padrino López

Vladimir Padrino López, Venezuela’s long-time defense minister, is portrayed by LA Nación as the backbone of the military establishment and the guarantor of Maduro’s survival. The armed forces remain loyal to him, forming an axis of power between Padrino and Maduro.

The US Treasury was opened by Padrino López as part of Maduro’s inner circle to fund the mandated program and exert positive pressure. Observers warn that if Padrino were to take over the leadership, Venezuela could shift to an extreme military model – where political authority is subsumed through military command structures.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Minister of Defense of Venezuela, speaks during a press conference accompanied by a military command at the Ministry of Defense in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday, Jan. 24, 2019. (Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Delcy Rodríguez

Delcy Rodríguez, the President of the Vice President of Venezuela, is described as a middle-class political operator and part of the ruling duo that governs his Jorge. His influence is shattering the institutional, economic and judicial institutions. The US Treasury was opened by Rodríguez as part of Maduro’s inner circle to facilitate the overthrow of democracy, and the European Union is counting under measures for human rights violations and the erosion of the rule of law.

Analysts note that Rodríguez took control of critical sectors, including the oil industry, and placed them at the center of the Opaque revenue structures that support the state. They will continue to be carried away by him, they warn, causing them to strengthen the state’s control over the economy and further politicize things.

Cilia Flores, the wife of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, speaks to the media during the simulation of the official vote of the Government of the new Assembly, in Caracas, Venezuela 16, 2017. Marco Bello / Reuters

Cilia Flores

Cilia Flores, first lady and longtime Chavista Power Broker, circles the circle of figures identified by La Nación as crucial to Maduro’s grip on power. Flores has held high positions, including national president, attorney general, and PSUV leadership member.

The US Treasury banned Flores in 2018 as part of a wider action against Maduro’s inner circle and their fraud networks, a move widely reported by Rectors. Members of his family have also faced associations or allegations linked to Narcotic crimes. Analysts say Flores’ political reach and influence within the party and the legal system make him a pivotal actor in any succession equation.

In this 13, 2019, file photo, Gen. Ivan Hernandez Dala, (L), head of the Security Guard and Agriintelligence of the military, with Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, (R), in Caracas, Venezuela. (Ariana Cubillos/AP)

Ván Hernández create

Hernándedez Dala Heads Evenezuela’s Agrintelligence Service (DGCIM) and commands the presidential guard, making him one of the most feared figures in Security Appations. His control of internal stress gives him great strength in any power struggle. He was singled out by the State Department in 2019 for his involvement in serious human rights violations.

The US Treasury Department wrote that under his command “torture is reported to be carried out by the DGCIM and abyxiation, cutting the feet with razor blades, electric shocks and threats of death.”

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Marczak and Vigil Beeve Washington’s Moves – and whether they drive negotiations or paralysis – will decide whether Venezuela moves towards democracy or something worse.

When Marczak put it: “Winning is not just Nicolás Maduro leaving … in fact defeat is actually a revolution in the forces of democracy.”