Vietnam prepared for possible US ‘war of aggression’, military documents show – National
A year after Vietnam raised its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows that its military is taking steps to prepare for an “aggressive war” with the United States and is taking on the United States with “violent force”, according to a report released on Tuesday.
In addition to revealing Hanoi’s ambivalence when approaching the US, the document confirms the deep fear of foreign powers that caused the communist revolution in the so-called “color revolution,” such as the Orange Revolution of 2004 in Ukraine, or the Yellow Revolution of 1986 in the Philippines.
Other internal documents The 88 Project, a human rights organization focused on human rights abuses in Vietnam, cited in its analysis point to similar concerns about US motives in Vietnam.
“There is a consensus here across government and across the various services,” said Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project and author of the report. “This is not just some kind of feature or anomaly in the party or the government.”
‘US Second Attack Plan’
The original Vietnam document titled “The 2nd US Invasion Plan” was completed by the Department of Defense in August 2024.
It suggests that in pursuit of “its objective of strengthening the containment of China, the US and its allies are ready to use unconventional methods of war and military intervention and even large-scale attacks on countries and regions that ‘deviate from its path.'”
FILE – A member of the US Marine Guard carries a Vietnamese flag during a ceremony at the Pentagon to welcome Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phan Van Giang, September 9, 2024, Washington. (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf, File).
While noting that “currently there is little risk of war against Vietnam,” the Vietnam editors wrote that “due to the US’s combative nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to attack our country.”
Vietnam military analysts point out what they see as a progression in the three American administrations – from Barack Obama, to the first term of Donald Trump, and to the presidency of Joe Biden – where Washington continues to pursue military and other relations with Asian countries to “build a war against China.”
Vietnam balances communications access with internal terror
In his speech, Biden in 2023 signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with Vietnam, which raises the relationship between the countries to its highest diplomatic level on par with Russia and China as “trustworthy partners with friendship based on mutual respect.”
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In the 2024 military document, however, Vietnamese planners said that while the US views Vietnam as a “partnership and an important link,” it also wants to “spread and enforce its principles of freedom, democracy, human rights, race and religion” to gradually transform the country’s socialist government.
“The 2nd US Invasion Plan provides one of the clearest ideas on Vietnamese foreign policy,” Swanton wrote in his analysis. “It shows that far from viewing the US as a strategic partner, Hanoi sees Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its alliance against China.”
Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to emails seeking comment on the Project 88 report or the document it highlights.
The U.S. State Department declined to comment directly on “America’s Second Strike Plan,” but emphasized the new partnership agreement, saying it “promotes the prosperity and security of the United States and Vietnam.”
“A strong, prosperous, independent and resilient Vietnam benefits our two countries and helps ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains stable, secure, free and open,” the State Department said.
Documents provide a window into internal thinking
Nguyen Khac Giang, of the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute research center in Singapore, said the plans highlight tensions in Vietnam’s political leadership, where a long-standing, military-aligned Communist opposition group has been busy threatening the regime.
“The military has never been more comfortable moving forward with the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States,” Giang said.
Conflicts in the government spilled into the public sphere in June 2024, when the US-affiliated Fulbright University was accused of instigating a “color revolution” through a military TV report. The State Department has defended the university, which American and Vietnamese officials have highlighted as the two countries improve relations.
Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, said the Vietnamese military still has a “very long memory” of the war with the US that ended in 1975. Although Western diplomats tend to see Hanoi as more concerned about possible Chinese aggression, the document reinforces other policy documents that suggest the leaders’ greatest fear is “color change,” he said.
Another blow to trust between the US and Vietnam was the cuts made to the US Agency for International Development by the administration of President Donald Trump, which hampered projects such as efforts to clean up tons of soil contaminated with deadly dioxin from the military’s Agent Orange defoliant and US anti-explosive weapons and landmines.
“This whole insecurity about color change is very frustrating, because I don’t see why the Communist Party is so insecure,” said Abuza, whose book “The Vietnam People’s Army: From People’s Warfare to Military Modernization?” was published last year.
“They have a lot to be proud of – they have lifted many people out of poverty, the economy is doing well, they are the darlings of foreign investors.”
While China and Vietnam have been at odds over territorial claims in the South China Sea, documents portray China as a regional rival rather than a threat like the US.
“China is not a threat to the Communist Party (of Vietnam),” said Abuza. “Of course, the Chinese know that they can push the Vietnamese so far, because they fear that the Communist Party cannot respond forcefully to China (and) will look weak and will cause a coup.”
China is Vietnam’s largest two-way trade partner, while the US is its largest export market, meaning Hanoi needs to perform a balancing act in maintaining diplomatic and economic ties, while also hedging its bets.
“Even some progressive leaders are looking at the United States, saying, ‘Yes, they love us, they are working with us, they are good partners at the moment, but if they were given the chance if there was a color change, the Americans would support it,'” said Abuza.
Trump’s second administration eases some concerns, but raises others
Under Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, who became general secretary of the Communist Party around the time of this writing, the country has moved to strengthen ties with the US, especially under Trump, Giang said.
Lam was re-elected as secretary-general last month and is expected to take over as president, making him the country’s most powerful player in decades.
With Lam at the helm, the Trump family business has sprung up with a $1.5 billion golf resort named after Trump and a luxury housing project in northern Hung Yen province. The Vietnamese leader almost immediately accepted Trump’s invitation to join the Peace Council, which Giang said was an unusually quick decision given that foreign policy moves are often scrutinized with a close eye on Beijing’s reaction.
But Trump’s military operation to detain former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has given Vietnamese conservatives a new reason for their uneasiness about closer ties with Washington. Any US military action involving Hanoi’s ally Cuba could upset Vietnam’s strategic balance, Giang added.
“Cuba is very sensitive,” he said. “If something happens in Cuba, it will scare Vietnamese political officials. Many of them have strong ties with Cuba.”
Overall, the first year of Trump’s second term may have left Vietnamese people happy with the focus on the Western Hemisphere but wondering about other things going on, Abuza said.
“Vietnamese people will be confused by the Trump administration, which undermines human rights and the promotion of democracy, but at the same time is willing to violate the sovereignty of states and remove leaders they don’t like,” he said.
