Washington – President Trump continues to throw around a possible war against Cuba, appearing emboldened by his administration’s intervention in Venezuela again Iran.
After the US forces have captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, Mr. Trump has warned that he is looking at Cuba. Standing next to Mr. Trump at a press conference about the raid on January 3, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the state should be “concerned.”
Since Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in the American strikes on Iran in February, Mr. On March 16, Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he believed he would “have the right to take Cuba.”
“Taking over Cuba in a way, yes,” he said. “To take Cuba. Even if I free it, take it – I think I can do whatever I want with it, if you want to know the truth.”
“Cuba will follow,” said Mr. Trump told reporters Sunday on Air Force One.
Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has been outspoken about the administration’s potential intentions in Cuba, testifying to Congress in January, “we would like to see the regime change,” saying it would be “a great benefit” to the U.S. Weeks later, Rubio said Cuba should “change a lot.”
“I mean, Cuba has a dysfunctional economy and a political and governmental system that can’t be fixed,” Rubio said on March 17 in the Oval Office. “The people in charge, they don’t know how to fix it. Therefore, they have to find new people in charge.”
Rubio reiterated the need for economic reform and political reform on Tuesday, telling Fox News that the administration “will have more news on that soon.”
“You can’t fix their economy if you don’t change the government system,” he said.
At the moment, experts in the region consider the military threat to Cuba unnecessary, saying it will involve a greater effort than in Venezuela because of the political structure. Enforcing gradual economic reforms, and the resignation of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, due to the threat of economic collapse and other sanctions is the most likely scenario, they said.
“I think there are a few factions among the administration where some would be happy to make a deal with the current Cuban government if it gives greater access to businesses, and especially to Cuban Americans to come back and invest,” Paul Hare, who served as British ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004, told CBS News. “One group, I think, is insisting on a complete change of regime.”
The Trump administration has been trying to stifle Cuba’s economy by cutting off oil, which experts say has put the communist-ruled island in the worst situation since the fall of the Soviet Union, which supported Cuba’s economy.
The two governments have been talking, although Díaz-Canel said in early March that they were “far from an agreement.” The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Cuba, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, in an interview with NBC that his nation does not see that a US war is “possible,” but their soldiers are “ready” for any US aggression. Cossío added that regime change is “not” on the table.
What regime change would look like is another question.
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, senior fellow and deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said “state management” is “the only logical option.”
“Regime change is probably more difficult to achieve than in Venezuela. Regime management, I would argue again, is probably more difficult to achieve than in Venezuela because you have a power structure that is about 70 years old and we are experts in repression and experts in sniffing out opposition. So is there a point of pressure where certain elements in Cuba think it’s better but I think it’s better to change as I am in Venezuela? Don’t think so. I think it’s probably too difficult,” he told CBS News.
“An independent solution that is not subject to any kind of coercion, I don’t think is possible,” he added.
Raúl Castro handed the presidency to Díaz-Canel in 2018, marking the first time since 1959 that Castro has not officially led the country. But Díaz-Canel is widely regarded as a figurehead and Castros still holds sway.
“He is not the person who holds power in the country, but it can be seen as a victory for the United States,” said Hernandez-Roy.
It is not even clear who will run the country.
Another scenario would be Delcy Rodríguez who would lead the island “very united and under the pressure of the United States,” according to Lawrence Gumbiner, a career expert who headed the American Embassy in Havana during the first term of Mr.
“The first step would be to open up the economy,” Gumbiner said about how the US could put pressure on the government-aligned leader. “I think the clear message will be the same with Ms. Rodriguez — that she’s going to do as we say, or else.”
Gumbiner said “of course” there is a military threat, although he believes such a threat is low, and there may be a case. Senior federal prosecutor in Miami was assessing potential costs against the leadership of the Communist Party, including economic crimes, drugs, violent crimes and violations of laws related to immigration.
The most ambitious step would involve bringing in someone from outside the state to push for constitutional changes, Hare said.
Gumbiner said Mr. Trump is less concerned about political change, instead seeing the nation as a huge opportunity for American businesses.
“Whether it’s exports, whether it’s transportation, whether it’s tourism, whether it’s construction, I think Trump sees Cuba as a kind of place that no one has seen, where it has been quiet for sixty years, and where US businessmen can come in and control the scene,” he said.
Gumbiner said that it is possible that Rubio wants to see a wider change in Cuba than Mr. Trump, but added that “there are many reasons why that will be difficult.” The former diplomat said shaking up the political framework “will involve a major US effort.”
“It is important to note that Trump does not want to build a nation,” he said. “Rebuilding Cuba can be a nation-building project if you want to rebuild it with a democratic, pluralist model. Although, making economic reforms is a little easier.”
He is facing increasing pressure from the Trump administration, the Cuban government announced that it will allow Cubans living abroad to invest in companies on the island. It marked a significant change in the country, which until recent years had largely restricted citizens from starting private businesses.
This week, the US allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba. Mr. Trump shown Sunday was a humanitarian act.
“They have to survive,” he said.
