Speculation markets are facing scrutiny over the profitability of betting on an Iran strike
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig joins ‘Mornings and Maria’ to defend federal oversight of futures markets amid escalating legal battle with state regulators.
One digital gambler known only as “Magamyman” walked away with $600,000 this weekend after successfully betting on a US military strike against Iran’s leadership—and he wasn’t alone.
As millions of dollars flood into controversial prediction markets related to US strikes on Iran and the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, blockchain investigators say a handful of suspected insiders may have used non-public information to turn the fog of war into a personal storm.
Just before the US-led strikes that rocked Iran early Saturday, Reuters and other outlets reported a surge in “suspiciously timed bets” that generated huge profits. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has identified six suspects behind the post in X, saying they collectively received $1.2 million from Polymarket in the hours before the dispute began.
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Khamenei’s total trading volume reached more than $55 million in Kalshi and more than $58 million in Polymarket.
Traders on the Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market platforms have made millions on trades related to the Iran conflict. (Getty Images)
Kalshi faced intense scrutiny after the organization’s controlled negotiations ended the exchange made in this position, “Ali Khamenei is out as the Supreme Leader?” as the good scriptures show that people cannot benefit directly from death. Instead of settling “Yes” contracts at a total price of $1, Kalshi used the “record death” rule, adjusting positions based on the last price traded before his death was officially confirmed and returning all trading fees.
“As an exchange, we settle the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the solution. I understand that many of you are frustrated with the Khamenei market,” Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour wrote on X.
“No trader has lost money in this market. Although the rules were clear and we tried our best to highlight them, the traders expressed that they were not highlighted enough,” continued Mansour. “We’ve learned a lot from this market. We’re revising how we present similar markets (eg, those with a death draw or where death may occur) so traders can see the differences clearly before they trade.”
Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to react to the growing US-Iran conflict, defend President Donald Trump’s military strikes and examine Iran’s future after the reported death of Ali Khamenei.
Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi immediately responded to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
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“Gambling with war and death not only presents a national security risk, it also raises serious concerns about insider trading — presenting unscrupulous government officials with the opportunity to profit from a new war with Iran,” Senate Minority Leader Adam Schiff, D-Calif., tweeted on Monday. “These contracts are illegal. [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] he can and should stop them.”
Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour says the company wants to give people what they want in ‘The Claman Countdown.’
However, this is not the first time that prediction markets have come under scrutiny for alleged insider trading. Just last month, Kalshi took action by suspending and fining two users – including an employee of the world’s most subscribed YouTuber, MrBeast – for trading material, non-public information.
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