Obamacare enrollment is expected to drop by more than 1M people by the 2026 estimate
Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., discusses the ongoing health care debate in the Senate and criticizes the Democrats’ approach to getting Obamacare funding from Kudlow.
Registration Obamacare plans It appears to be trending downward for more than a million Americans by 2026 amid rising monthly premiums and the expiration of enhanced subsidies for health insurance premiums that were implemented during the COVID-19 crisis.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released a report Wednesday that showed 23 million consumers signed up for individual health insurance coverage through the Marketplaces during the 2026 open enrollment period. That includes 15.8 million opt-ins in states that use the HealthCare.gov platform and 7.2 million that use state-based exchanges.
Enhanced funding for the COVID-19 era for health insurance expired at the end of last year after Congress failed to reach an agreement to extend it, although the original funding implemented under the Affordable Care Act remains in effect. Total costs paid by subsidized Obamacare enrollees are expected to rise to $1,904 in 2026 from $888, according to KFF data.
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An analysis by healthcare industry research firm KFF noted that since mid-January, enrollments have dropped by about 1.2 million consumers compared to 24.2 million registered at this time last year.
Congress failed to reach an agreement to extend enhanced funding for the COVID-19 era of Obamacare programs. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
KFF noted that the registration information released in this section represents automatic renewal and opt-in of plans, which may not constitute active registration as some may choose not to pay for their plan.
More than four in 10 new subscribers by 2025 come from automatic renewal, and KFF explained that as returning buyers get the first time. bills from insurers and realize the cost, they may choose not to pay the premium and ultimately lose coverage or choose not to enroll.
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Health insurance costs are expected to increase in 2026. (Getty Images)
The group warned that without enhanced premium tax credits, the performance or premium payment rate may decrease compared to previous years, which may ultimately result. registration data indicating a deep decline.
KFF conducted a survey showing that premium payments were expected to double on average by 2026, and nearly 25% of enrollees said they would drop health insurance this year if their premiums doubled as expected.
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Obamacare enrollment calculations will not be finalized until after the 90-day grace period for paying premiums ends. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Analysts said they expect total enrollment in Obamacare plans to fall in the coming months as consumers see higher premiums and choose to let their coverage lapse rather than pay more to keep it.
“Given the 90-day grace period, which should apply to most ACA members, we see the potential for strong non-enrollment activity during this period, leading to a lower final enrollment rate,” said Evercore ISI analyst Elizabeth Anderson.
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Registration on HealthCare.gov continued until Jan. 15, 2026, although state-based registration deadlines vary.
Reuters contributed to this report.
