China’s birth control tax comes amid growing concerns about a shrinking population

China will start charging a 13% tax on contraceptives starting Jan. 1. while exempting childcare services from the same tax, a move that authorities say is part of a broader effort to boost births as the country faces continued population decline, according to the BBC and the Associated Press.

The tax overhaul, announced late last year, removes an exemption that has been in place since 1994, when China was still implementing its decades-old one-child policy.

Alongside new taxes on contraceptives such as condoms and birth control pills, the Chinese government is exempting childcare, wedding services and elderly care from value-added tax (VAT), reports the BBC.

Beijing has been pushing young people to marry and have children as it faces an aging population and a sluggish economy. Official statistics show that China’s population has declined for three consecutive years, with an estimated 9.54 million births in 2024.

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The figure is about half the number of births recorded a decade ago, when China began easing restrictions on family size, according to national figures cited by the BBC and AP.

The pressures on the Chinese people have been increasing for years. Births decreased from about 14.7 million in 2019 to about 9.5 million in 2024. In 2023, India officially overtakes China as the world’s most populous country.

A new tax on contraceptives has drawn derision and concern within China. On social media, some users joked about stocking up on condoms before the prices went up and others said the cost of contraception was small compared to the cost of raising a child, the BBC reported.

“I have one child, and I don’t want any more,” Daniel Luo, 36, who lives in Henan province, told the BBC. He said the price increase would not change his family’s plans, comparing it to a small increase in subway fares that does not change daily behavior.

Others worry that the policy may have unintended consequences. Rosy Zhao, who lives in the central city of Xi’an, told the BBC that making contraception more expensive could put students or people with financial problems at risk. He called that the most dangerous result of the policy.

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China scrapped its controversial one-child policy in 2015. (Adek Berry)

Health experts echoed those concerns in interviews with the AP, warning that high prices could reduce access to contraceptives and contribute to unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases. China recorded more than 670,000 cases of syphilis and more than 100,000 cases of gonorrhea by 2024, according to data from the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration.

China also reports some of the highest abortion rates in the world. Between 2014 and 2021, authorities recorded between 9 and 10 million abortions per year, according to the National Health Commission. China stopped publishing abortion data in 2022.

Demographers and policy analysts remain skeptical that a birth control tax will increase birth rates. Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told the BBC that the idea that higher condom prices will influence fertility decisions is like overthinking the policy.

Additional tax revenue, which reached $1 trillion last year, makes up about 40% of China’s tax collection, according to figures cited by the BBC.

Henrietta Levin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) described the move as symbolic, reflecting Beijing’s attempt to raise what she called shockingly low fertility numbers. He also warned that many of the incentives and subsidies depend on state governments that are already heavily indebted, raising questions about whether they can fund these measures properly.

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A family of three takes a selfie at a shopping mall in Beijing as the Chinese government weighs options to boost the birth rate. (Yang Yuran/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)

Public health experts interviewed by the AP said the policy could disproportionately affect women, who bear most of the burden of birth control in China. A study released by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in 2022 found that condoms are used by about 9% of couples, while 44.2% rely on intrauterine devices and 30.5% on female sterilization. Male sterilization accounted for 4.7%.

Some women say the tax is fueling anger over the government’s long history of involvement in reproductive decisions. The Communist Party enforced the one-child policy from about 1980 until 2015 with fines, penalties and, in some cases, forced abortions, according to the AP. Children born outside the policy are sometimes denied household registration, making them non-citizens.

“It’s a disciplinary strategy, to control women’s bodies and my desire for sex,” Zou Xuan, 32, a teacher in Jiangxi province, told the AP.

Concerns about state interference have resurfaced in recent months. The BBC reported that women in some states received calls from local officials asking about menstrual cycles and pregnancy plans. A health center in Yunnan province said the data is needed to identify expectant mothers, a move critics say risks separating the very families Beijing hopes to promote.

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Levin warned that such measures could damage public trust. He told the BBC, ” [Communist] the group cannot help but include itself in every decision it cares about. So it keeps its biggest enemy in some ways. “

While the government is revising policies once used to limit population growth, experts warn that reversing decades-long population trends will be more difficult than raising the bill – especially after years of policies that encouraged families to have children.