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What will the government of Iran look like after this military conflict? This question is being asked in the media. And, we are told, it can be a disaster, depending on who or what replaces the current Islamic dictatorship.
This is interesting.
So, I will answer this seemingly complicated question: We don’t know what it will look like. In fact, since we have no desire to be involved in any kind of post-war “democratic project”, how could we?
We announced to the people of Iran that when most conflicts are over, it is up to them to overthrow the government. And, logically, it will be up to them to decide what replaces it – especially if we have no intention of engaging in a post-war project.
Of course, the hostility to “democratic projects” stems largely from our experience in Iraq, where the word “democracy” was often used as a reason to fight that war. It didn’t go well, and we got hurt a lot.
The question before us is not what a post-war Iran will look like, but whether it is in our interest, for various reasons, to be involved in shaping that outcome – and, if so, to what extent and in what way.
But every situation is different. Not all conflicts are in Iraq. After World War II, we played a major role in setting up governments in Japan and Western Europe. We pursued the Marshall Plan in Europe, and that effort was successful.
But if one is going to ask about a post-war Iran – if we have no intention of playing a role in the formation of a new government, even though non-involvement has consequences – then the question doesn’t matter or you can’t. Most of those who ask do so out of concern about what might happen.
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The most important question, it seems to me, is whether we will play any role in post-war Iran, especially if the status of the new government is the most important issue. Obviously it is. I’m not against the “democratic project,” but I’m suggesting that a hands-off approach can be problematic, if not catastrophic.
Therefore, the question before us is not what a post-war Iran will look like, but whether it is in our interest, for various reasons, to be involved in shaping that outcome – and, if so, to what extent and in what way.
The truth is that if we don’t hold back completely, we risk resuming the regime we destroyed. Undoubtedly there will be remnants of the existing regime, or even large numbers of people willing to destroy the establishment of a democratic or unauthorized government. If they are disarmed, they may succeed in the struggle for power.
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Moreover, let’s not pretend that China, Russia or Turkey – and perhaps others – will not see our absence as an opportunity to influence or impose their will on Iran. In short, doing nothing can be a dangerous and fatal mistake.
I am concerned that not enough thought is given to this, especially if our view is to leave the matter entirely to others. This does not mean that we should arrest the military to enforce democracy in the country. But there are other very short options as well.
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Also, Iran is not Iraq. Persians share many, if not most, of our Western values. Persian culture was among the most advanced of any civilization. Its roots are ancient, and its history is marked by academic, scientific and artistic achievements.
Of course, the current issue is the complete defeat of the regime that hijacked the Iranian government, enslaved its people and has been a threat to our country and the world for almost a century. But we can go and chew gum at the same time. The type of Iranian government after the war is an important issue for the Iranian people and our country, lest the war we are fighting today be in vain.
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