Iran’s regime is ‘cornered’ and ‘in grave danger’ as deadly protests spread
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We’ve been here before. Mass protests across Iran are shaking the foundations of the Islamic state, with protesters risking the wrath of an unforgiving regime, while the world watches wondering whether they will overthrow the decades-old theocracy.
They didn’t in the past.
But as the current protests – which began as a strike due to the collapse of Iran’s economy – close to two weeks and continue to spread with the death toll, some believe that Iran’s ruling clerics are facing an unprecedented threat, partly due to the actions of US President Donald Trump in Venezuela.
“Iran is now facing a storm,” said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst and professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
“The biggest lesson from the collapse of the Venezuelan regime is not Colombia, not Greenland,” he said. “The Iranians know that Iran is the next target. Not only with the Trump administration, but also with the government of Benjamin Netanyahu. [in Israel].”
Israel, which has long seen Iran as an existential threat, launched 12 days of what it described as preemptive strikes on Iran’s military and nuclear facilities last June, when US warplanes attacked three of its major nuclear facilities.
“See 1768003852 look at Iran as cornered, very vulnerable and weak at this point,” Gerges said. “I think they are under pressure. They hope that they can actually bring about regime change in Iran. ”
The US is ready to intervene
US President Donald Trump has issued more than one warning to Iran about ending anti-government protests.
On Friday, he told reporters in Washington that “if they start killing people like they did in the past, we will get involved.”
“Not boots on the ground, but hitting them where it hurts,” he said.
His comments may have encouraged protesters who have long campaigned for the end of the Islamic state, even if many do not believe Washington has their best interests at heart.
In a speech delivered in Tehran on Friday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed the US threats.
“Come on [Trump] run his country if he can, there are all kinds of incidents happening in his country.
He also reverted to familiar script, blaming the protests on rebels and people acting as “immigrant workers for foreigners,” raising fears that there may be a bigger crackdown on the protests than has been seen.
Many people were killed in the protests
Amnesty International said authorities shut down telephones and the internet in many parts of the country on Thursday.
“Based on the history of the Iranian authorities, we are very concerned that the authorities will unleash another wave of bloodshed,” said Raha Bahreini, Amnesty’s Iran researcher in London.
“They have already killed a number of protesters and bystanders, including children,” he said.
Bahraini said Amnesty’s investigation in 13 cities in 8 provinces found that the security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the police, used rifles and loaded guns against the protesters.
“What is different about this is that people are not discouraged by this horrible act of gunfire. Despite the killings, we have seen the protests grow every day.”
Whether that will continue if Iran’s security forces begin to react with more brutality remains to be seen.
Sanam Vakil, head of the Chatham House think tank’s Middle East department, says Washington’s recent actions will undoubtedly be part of the state’s calculations.
“There are no easy ways to avoid leadership in Iran,” he said. “They are under political pressure from within. The economic policy changes they need to make are not really possible without reaching an accommodation with the American administration and that requires negotiation. It requires consensus.”
Iranians have endured decades of crippling US-led sanctions aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. Perceived economic mismanagement and corruption among Iran’s ruling classes added to the sense of anger among many Iranian demonstrators.
“What is very clear to me is that the whole system in Iran, the political parties are at the bottom,” said Vakil. “Without an accommodation, without a change in policy, but also in its place against the protesters and perhaps the governance structure in Iran, things will collapse.”
