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Exactly 23 years ago, I was a marine headed to the Persian Gulf on the same ships that are now taking thousands of marines to Iran today. Many of us had questions about President Bush’s intentions for Iraq, but it was not our job to ask them. Congress had voted and we had a clear task ahead of us.
Today, as a member of the branch of government charged with declaring war, those questions are my job. And after President Trump’s speech on Wednesday, Americans have more questions than answers.
Instead of laying out a clear strategy to end this war or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has offered vague promises of escalation and even veiled threats of war crimes against the Iranian people. Financial markets took off in real time during his speech, reflecting the same uncertainty and fear our service members and their families are feeling right now.
WHY TRUMP IS FACED WITH AN IMMEDIATE DECISION TO KILL IRAN OIL SUPPLIES IF HE CAN’T GET A DEAL
We have heard many stated goals of the Trump administration that seem to change by the day, from regime change, to the “destruction” of ballistic missiles, to seizing their oil. Last night it was preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. Leaving aside the fact that Iran has been expressing power aggressively and effectively since Trump started this war, and allegedly “destroyed” their nuclear program last summer, there are no options involving ground troops that will help to end it.
If Trump is serious about the 2-3 week hike he revealed Wednesday night, these are the options he appears to be considering.
The first option is to take Kharg Island. It is Iran’s economic center of gravity, but to correct a common misunderstanding, it is not in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s logic seems to be that if he makes this war too expensive from an economic point of view, Iran will collapse.
There are two problems with that logic. First, it makes sense that Trump is willing to increase sanctions on Iranian oil in an effort to lower US gas prices, but he would also agree to exclude Iranian oil from the global market by seizing Kharg Island. Second, a strong theocracy is not particularly vulnerable to economic pressure.
His second program is a special dangerous operation to protect uranium from bombed areas in the mountains. The chances of such a complex operation going smoothly are slim, and even if it does, we would be incredibly naive to think that Iran will not simply enrich more uranium. It will also not help to open the Strait, and it is not necessary: Obama accomplished this on paper back in 2015.
The third plan is to forcefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by seizing the Iranian coast. Such an attack would require tens or hundreds of thousands of American troops, result in thousands of American casualties, and would have no military end but to stay there indefinitely.
Every option runs into the same problem: The regime will still work. We’ve removed one old, tough leader and replaced him with a younger, more aggressive one, leaving us with only one military option: destabilize Iran, then watch it rebuild and rearm.
TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY REFLECTS ‘UNDERSTANDING DOCTRINE’ BETWEEN INCIDENT THREATS AND CEASE AND IMMEDIATE
The Pentagon’s reported request for an additional $200 billion bill tells you what they think each cycle will cost. That’s an expensive practice, costing the average taxpayer about $1,300, and costing the military families we lose incredibly often. Are you ready to spend $1,300 in Iran every few years?
That is why the only way to end this war is through a negotiated agreement. This is the path President Obama set for us with his nuclear deal. It wasn’t perfect, but it removed the threat of a nuclear Iran, backed by continuous electronic testing and monitoring. Trump lied when he told the American people that Iran was against it; his first Administration which ensured that Iran was following it. And it’s telling that many of the nuclear proposals he’s making now were already contained in the Obama deal.
Unfortunately, Trump has now made getting back to the negotiating table more difficult than ever. Both times the Iranians sat down to talk, they attacked them and, surprisingly, Iran is actually more powerful today than ever by closing the Strait.
IRAN RESPONDS TO REPORTS ON WORLD ACTIVITIES: ‘WE WILL NEVER STOP BEING PRAISED’
However, the longer we stay stuck in this mess, the harder it is to get out. The more our goals grow, the more difficult it will be to claim victory, and this is where Iran benefits. Imagine if, a few weeks from now, Iran kidnapped several American soldiers and we were back to the hostage crisis of forty years ago.
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Trump says we need two or three more weeks of war. But he also says that we have already achieved our military objectives and have won. Both cannot be true. Either he is misleading the American people, or he has no clear plan to end this war.
Iran is not a problem that the United States can solve militarily without the Americans bearing the highest costs. We watch that reality play out in real time.
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If the self-proclaimed President of Peace does not want to be remembered for the worst mistake of a generation, there is still – a little – time to make a deal.
He says he’s good at that.
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