Why is Trump threatening to punish Iraq if the former prime minister is re-elected?

Erbil, Iraq – President Trump has threatened to cut off all US support to Iraq if the country re-elects former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for a third term.

Al-Maliki, a member of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim majority, was present he was forced to resign in 2014 after two consecutive terms in office amid pressure from inside and outside the country as it faces the rise of Sunni sectarianism ISIS.

Here’s what you need to know about al-Maliki, why Mr. Trump’s refusal to cooperate with him, and what the disagreement could mean for Iraq:

What did President Trump say?

In a post on Truth Social on Jan. 27, President Trump called al-Maliki “the worst decision” for Iraq, saying that his previous leadership, between 2006 and 2014, was defined by “poverty and complete chaos.”

“Because of his opposite policies and ideas, if he is elected, the United States of America will no longer be able to help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom,” said Mr.

In a statement posted on Wednesday on social media, al-Maliki said, “We absolutely reject the US interference in Iraq’s internal affairs, which we consider an abuse of its sovereignty and a contradiction of the democratic system established in Iraq after 2003.”

Why is Trump so against Nouri al-Maliki?

One analyst, along with the words of a top American diplomat, suggested that there is one word that explains why Mr. Trump referring to al-Maliki, although the president actually left the name out of his book Truth Social: Iran.

His strong opposition to al-Maliki appears to be part of Washington’s renewed effort to curb the influence exerted on Iraq’s Shiite majority by its neighbor Iran, the region’s largest Shiite state. It is a history of the aftermath of the US invasion in 2003, which overthrew the Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein but opened the way for Iran to assert its influence.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a call on Jan. 25 and outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, stressed that any “Iraqi government controlled by Iran will not be able to effectively put Iraq’s interests first, keep Iraq out of regional conflicts, or develop a mutually beneficial relationship between the United States and Iraq.”

Iraq’s leading Shiite political parties, including al-Maliki, are seen by the US as aligned with, if not dependent on, Iran. When he was in power, al-Maliki was considered very close to Iran and he was they are accused of being too sectariantargeting members of Iraq’s Sunni minority with his policies.

Ayad Al-Anber, a professor of political science at the University of Baghdad, told CBS News on Thursday that Mr.

He said it is still not clear how much pressure the Trump administration is willing to use, be it diplomatic, economic or military, to achieve that goal.

Can Nouri al-Maliki be re-elected in Iraq?

The Shiite Coordination Framework, the largest party in Iraq’s parliament, recently reached a majority agreement to nominate al-Maliki for a third term.

The former prime minister has remained an influential figure in Iraqi politics despite his ignominious exit from office in 2014, thanks to his skills as a politician and crisis manager.

That said, there are no political polls in Iraq that will help gauge his popularity nationally, or among Shiite voters.

What are the advantages of Iraq?

Mr. Trump left Baghdad with a big problem. For domestic stability, any government must maintain an incredibly delicate balance, keeping the country’s Shiite majority, as well as its large Sunni and Kurdish minorities, happy.

According to the US government, Iraq received direct aid of 31 million dollars from Washington in 2025. That figure does not include the cost of US military deployments to the country, which are aimed at containing the ongoing threat of ISIS.

Of that US funding, about $20 million was devoted to security-related costs, and about $9 million went to help cover the operating costs of government and civil society organizations.

Another important aspect of US support is not so direct, but it also gives Washington important power: All the oil revenues of the Iraqi government are processed through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and if the Trump administration sees that Baghdad is making a request to Iran, there is concern in Iraq that the funds may not be tied up.