Strategies of Non-DOM AT TAX ‘Economics Fantasy’, warns the previous economic government
The expected tax revenue from the elimination of non-DOM status was dismissed as “Fountasy Economics” by the previous government Economist, among the chancellors who depended on the wrong thinking to print future gaps in public finances.
A new analysis of the budget after the publication of the Chamborchanct Chambelbernalker suggests that the forecasts support non-celebratory changes are increasingly restricted from the real. Drawing in the office reporting of the latest budget next to the previous one, the study concludes that the government takes almost the receipts of the UK – The result The authors say is not expected under the current law.
At the heart of the government’s forecast is the expectation that around £130bn of foreign assets will be repatriated to the UK through the temporary repatriation facility (TRF), part of the OBR’s launch which deals with $34bn of tax on income 2029-30.
However, Chamberlainwalker’s analysis reveals that this hope rests on 3 assumptions. First, the Treasury said banks in large numbers are not doms using TRF, despite tax advisors discouraging customers from doing so in their current situation. While the government expects £360bn in overseas assets to be eligible, the report suggests there is little incentive for people to transfer money without legal certainty.
Second, the analysis challenges the assumption – unchanged from the 2025 budget – that only one in seven affected people will enter the UK. The latest evidence, the report says, shows that travel could be at least 50 per cent higher than the OBR had expected.
Thirdly, it questions the belief that the non-DOM period has the same level of foreign exchange and profits for those who have left. Chamberlainwalker says there are strong indications that those leaving the UK are putting high-profile people overseas, including a few high-profile billionaires, which means a higher tax base, which means the tax base could deteriorate faster than expected.
Chris Walker, founding partner of Chamberlainwalker and former Economist, says he predicts the risk of leaving a big hole in the public sector if he fails to act.
“The government’s bet that it will get receipts of around 34BN for 2029-30 is based on more assumptions,” he said. “The assumption that non-doms will shift £130bn of UK taxable property is an economic blow under current law.
The report also warns that meaningful information on the true impact of the changes may not emerge until early 2027, leaving ministers to “cross their fingers” that the revenue arrives later in Parliament. While that may be politically convenient, the authors argue, it is no substitute for sound financial planning.
To reduce the risk, ChamberlaIdwalker recommends targeted amendments to the Finance Bill passing through Parliament. This proposal will provide clear assurance that non-financials using TRF in good faith will not be subject to later anti-avoidance laws or income tax challenges. According to the report, such security can help convince more people to stay in the UK and bring foreign assets onshore, improving the reliability of the financial forecast.
Without that change, the analysis concludes, the risk of the government finding out late that one of the post-budget funds is built on hope rather than Econom Enthodics.
