When debris from an intercepted Iranian missile hit the Fairmont The Palm, a five-star hotel on Dubai’s luxury man-made island on Feb. 28, not only punctured the country’s advanced missile defense system but also its carefully crafted security image.
For decades, the United Arab Emirates has positioned itself as an economic and cultural hub, connecting European and Asian markets.
“The UAE in particular, but in general, the whole Gulf region set itself up as a haven, surrounded by a lake of chaos for the last 40 years … and all that has collapsed now,” said Stephen J. Fallon, a political analyst who lived in the country for eight years, and now lives in Ireland.
Stability and security have long been a hallmark of life in the Emirates. Millions of people have been attracted to this country over the years, drawn by its beautiful streets and glittering towers, rising from the desert and reaching for the stars.
A drone struck the Fairmont Hotel in Dubai, UAE, on February 28. The incident occurred after Iran’s military launched retaliatory strikes following a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. Footage captured a missile overhead and a subsequent fire at the hotel’s entrance. pic.twitter.com/6MwenQvKyb
According to government statistics, the country had about 11.3 million people as of 2024, most of whom are not natives but immigrants.
But on Saturday, just hours after the US and Israel launched massive strikes against Iran that killed the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the UAE was hit harder than ever.
‘It’s not the sound we’re used to’
Rashad-Asaad Masri came from Lebanon to Dubai 15 years ago. Like many Lebanese, Masri saw his bright economic future in the UAE and a country that could provide all the necessary services he would need to build a life.
“Here, you feel supported by the state, the country, the government,” said Masri. “In Lebanon, you feel that you are not supported by anyone.”
The strikes started on Saturday. Iran targets US bases in the Middle East, as well as the infrastructure of people living in the Gulf, including Qatar and Bahrain. But the UAE has borne the brunt of Iran’s strikes.
Iran has so far launched 189 ballistic missiles and 941 drones to the UAE, which is across the Persian Gulf from Iran.
“We started to hear things in the sky that we don’t normally hear in Dubai,” said Masri.
That was a sentiment echoed by Alexander Debare, a 37-year-old businessman born and raised in the capital city of Abu Dhabi.
“It was loud, like, loud,” Debare said. “So I went up to the roof to look up, and apparently it was two missiles that were blocked. But it’s not the sound we’re used to.”
Three people were killed and scores injured, most of them due to falling debris, since Saturday. A parking lot near the US embassy in Dubai was gutted after an Iranian jet hit it.
Global Affairs Canada is urging Canadians to leave the Emirates as soon as possible, saying the threat of missiles and drones remains.
About 30,000 Canadians are registered in the UAE Foreign Minister Anita Anand said she is ordering airlines that hire Canadians to leave the country.
“This afternoon, I told my officials to make contracts to lease planes to Canadians,” he said. “This charter is dependent on obtaining the necessary permits from the UAE government to use their airspace, which we have already requested.”
An extended attack
The country has been hit by missiles and drones before, most notably in January 2022, when the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a series of missiles and drones targeting a fuel storage facility in the industrial part of Abu Dhabi, near the airport. But the attacks of the past few days have increased significantly.
The UAE boasts “advanced defences, including the Patriot missile system and high-altitude defences,” said HA Hellyer, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London. This allows it to defend against ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and various other threats, many of which it has seen in the past few days.
According to Emirates’ Department of Defensethe country’s multi-pronged program destroyed 175 of 189 missiles and intercepted 876 drones.
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However, although the pace of Iran’s attacks seems to have slowed down in recent days, there are concerns about how long the UAE can defend itself if the conflict continues for a long time.
“In a long, high-volume conflict, storage sustainability — not technological sophistication — will be the main hurdle,” Hellyer said.
The UAE recently denied a Bloomberg report that it is reducing the weapons of its air defense system.
Both Debare and Masri say that despite the growing tensions, life in the UAE remains the same for now.
“I went to the supermarket, said Masri. “It was full, and there were bakeries nearby. There were still people shopping and buying. So life is back to normal.”
The UAE has also been proactive in informing its citizens about incoming fire, issuing text message alerts advising them to seek safety and notifying them when the threat is over.
“You get a message on your phone saying be careful,” he said Debare, “and then when it’s done, you get a message saying you can continue. It’s very organized.”
Critical questions will inevitably arise
Still, analysts worry that extended conflict in the region could damage the country’s hard-earned reputation as a safe and stable place to live and invest.
“One episode can’t change the fundamentals of a building,” Hellyer said. “Repeated or high-impact strikes, however, can dispel perceptions of invulnerability and accelerate deeper regional security integration.”
Fallon added that many Gulf countries appear to be bearing the brunt of Iran’s military efforts.
“I think that once it is resolved, there will be serious questions asked by the Emirates, because for me, they and the other Gulf states, have been sacrificed on the altar of US-Israeli goals,” he said.
“The US and Israel seem content, to some extent, to bleed the Gulf states economically, while fighting this war.”
