Oil markets that are currently closed for the weekend are set to see a change in prices next week as the impact from the US and Israeli strikes against Iran on oil supplies from the Middle East remains unclear.
Conditions before the latest conflict with Iran foresaw a rapid price increase that would fade if the attack did not disrupt oil exports and infrastructure such as Iranian pipelines and its port on the island of Kharg. However, there could be a larger price increase and a longer-lasting impact if oil infrastructure or supplies are disrupted, for example due to the disruption of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices have already risen due to fears of war. International benchmark Brent crude closed at a seven-month high of US$72.87 on Friday.
Iran exports about 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, most of it to China, where private industries are less concerned about US sanctions that prevent Iran from selling its oil elsewhere. If that supply is disrupted, Chinese customers will look elsewhere for oil on the global market, potentially driving up prices.
Another question is about the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes each day. Exporters from the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates send most of their exports this way. However, analysts say Iran has no incentive to try to stop the scandal because it would cut off exports and only hurt its biggest customer, China.
Limited strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and the Revolutionary Guard averting regime change or an all-out war could see prices jump US$5-US$10 based on fear alone, according to Rystad Energy in a pre-war scenario.
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A wider war that includes disrupting Iran’s tanker fleet could see crude push past US$90 a barrel and US gas prices “above” US$3 per litre, according to another pre-war scenario from Clayton Seigle at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. US gasoline prices averaged $2.98 per liter last week, according to US auto club AAA.
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