Marcos is facing reform scrutiny as Duterte signals his 2028 presidential bid

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana again Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Journalists

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. is facing mounting pressure to make significant changes after Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio signed her intention to run for President in 2028, a move analysts say effectively opens the next race two years ahead.

Political observers said the early announcement settles disputes – including impeachment claims – amid the tumultuous presidential race, increasing power in both camps.

Gary G. Ador Dionisio, director of the School of Technology and Governance at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said Malacañang must show measurable progress on the important legislation and long-term commitment.

“The management should focus on the programs they have targeted and ensure that they are implemented, especially the priority bills that have been identified,” he said on the sidelines of a political event in Makati City.

Delivering results on economic reforms, anti-kingdom measures and high-profile corruption cases will strengthen the administration’s standing ahead of what could be a long campaign cycle, he added. Dealing with controversies like the multibillion-peso flood control project will also test its credibility.

Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said Ms. Duterte’s announcement appears to be limited to changing the political narrative.

By formalizing the long-awaited request by allies and rivals alike, he can frame efforts to impeach him as an attack on the party instead of accountability, he said.

“He made that announcement to change the narrative to be less about accountability and political revenge,” Mr. Tapia told BusinessWorld at the same event.

Four impeachment complaints have been filed against Mrs. Duterte since early February by civil society organizations, alleging the misappropriation of P612.5 million in secret funds allocated to her office and the Department of Education during her tenure as Secretary. The complaints mention corruption, unexplained wealth, violation of the constitution and betrayal of the public.

‘THE BEST FORM OF DEFENSE’
Mr. Tapia noted that even if Ms. Duterte were to resign, the trial could continue and result in her permanent disqualification from public office upon conviction.

“In that sense, resignation does not automatically affect accountability risks,” he said.

Arjan P. Aguirre, an assistant professor of political science at Ateneo de Manila University, said announcing the president’s request allows Ms.

“You’re reframing scrutiny as proof that you’re working or succeeding,” he said. The resignation, if it happens, could be presented as a protest against what he might describe as an impeachment process.

Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, a professor of political science at De La Salle University, described the move as strategic. “A lawsuit is the best form of defense,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat, noting that an early announcement could strengthen his core supporters and influence undecided politics.

Dennis C. Coronacion, chairman of the Political Science Department of the University of Santo Tomas, said the announcement may prompt lawmakers to re-evaluate alliances and clarify loyalties before the next election cycle.

FOREIGN POLICY CONTRACTORS
The developing 2028 race could also shape the Philippines’ foreign policy.

Sherwin E. Ona, an associate professor of political science and development studies at De La Salle University, said a Duterte presidency could revive closer ties with Beijing, especially if economic conditions weaken and Chinese financing becomes more favorable.

“It will depend a lot on China because it needs to regain political capital,” he said BusinessWorld.

Under Mr. Marcos, Manila strengthened ties with traditional partners such as the US and expanded cooperation with partners in Europe and Asia. The administration also pursued a wider diversification of economic and security relations.

A policy change in 2028 could reset that alignment, Mr. See, especially if the new administration revises the existing agreements.

Former President Rodrigo R. Duterte, who is Ms. Duterte’s father, has been targeting Beijing during his administration, seeking funding for infrastructure and investment despite tensions in the South China Sea.

In 2016, a United Nations-backed arbitration panel ruled that China’s expanded “nine-dash line” claim to the disputed maritime route was inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Beijing has rejected the decision and continues to assert its claims.

Recently, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned Philippine officials about statements criticizing Beijing. The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila reprimanded the Chinese Embassy for suggesting that the deterioration of relations could cost Filipinos “millions of jobs,” saying such talk ran the risk of appearing coercive.

Mr. Ona said the Marcos administration should continue to diversify the partnership to reduce the risk of the country’s alignment shifting.

Ms. Duterte’s announcement comes amid tensions between her camp and the Marcos administration. Mr. Marcos is limited to a single six-year term and has yet to name his successor.

Analysts say 2026 could prove crucial, as coalition building and domestic political contests could shape the strength of any candidate backed by the administration.

By entering the race early, Ms. Duterte is increasing the political costs of efforts to remove her, Mr. Duterte said. Tapia. The move could complicate the proceedings in the House of Representatives, although lawyers say the program will continue regardless of his political plans.